There were two (at least) fascinating articles about the decline in media effectiveness in the last election and the titanic implications not just for electoral spending but for all media buyers.
In the first article, Nate Silver (gotta love him) highlights that Pollsters who relied on traditional landline telephone polling overestimated support for Romney and Republicans. Polls which relied on cellphones and/or online questionnaires seemed to favor Obama and the Democrats. During the course of the campaign these were dismissed as biased especially by the right. Silver argues that cellphone polls--which some firms are legally restricted from conducting, captured younger voters who often do have landlines by and large favored the President. He noted that Gallup was particularly wrong and has been in the last three elections. Google which conducted on line questionnaires seemed to have the most accurate sample of likely voters and to reflect the final outcome. No doubt, many online respondents were more comfortable with the method and perhaps more truthful.
The second piece is even more fascinating: the Obama Campaign basically threw out the collective wisdom of decades of media ratings and buying. Gross ratings points, even traditional demographic measures were to the Obama campaign dumb and blind in reaching undecided voters. In a world of undecided voters, the key buys were Jimmy Fallon (NBC), Jimmy Kimmel (ABC) and reruns on TV Land network VIA.b), which apparently had no traditional ratings research to offer the campaign--maybe the lack there of made it more user friendly for non traditional users and viewers. Imagine if media buyers for consumer products, cars, electronics etc began to think the same way, the television grid would be upside down.
Oh wow. Let me know your thoughts!
Thanks for Reading.
Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race - NYTimes.com:
O Campaign Targeted Late Night, TV Rerun Undecideds
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